Today, the AIA released the semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, which projects that nonresidential construction spending will be up significantly this year and next. The institution's chief economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, estimates spending on nonresidential buildings to be about $360 billion this year (an 8.9 percent increase from 2014 figures) and approaching $380 billion next year (an 8.2 percent increase from projected 2015 totals).
The figures are based on a composite of U.S. nonresidential construction forecasts from paneliests including Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s Economy.com, CMD Group, Associated Builders & Contractors, and FMI.
In a breakdown of nonresidential sectors, the report predicts that commercial and industrial sectors will see the highest growth. Meanwhile, spending on institutional projects, which have been driving growth in the AIA's latest Architecture Billings Index reports, will increase over the next two years in most of its building types.
Today's forecast predicts more significant growth this year than did the previous Consensus Construction Forecast, released in January, which estimated that spending on nonresidential buildings in 2015 would increase by 7.7 percent. The press release notes that despite harsh weather conditions at the beginning of the year, "the overall construction market has performed extremely well to date."
Here’s a breakdown of the Consensus Construction Forecast’s predictions.
Read the AIA's previous Consensus Construction Forecast here.