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Growing Share of Consumers Plan to Purchase a New Home
Michael Neal / NAHB / August 1, 2013
Measures of consumer confidence continue to report mixed results on a monthly basis. However, over time they are trending in the same direction. According to Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 1 point in July to a seasonally adjusted level of 84.1. The final reading of consumer sentiment was revised up from the preliminary reading of 83.9 that was released earlier in the month. Meanwhile, the Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index fell by 1.9 points, 2.3%, on a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis in July to 80.3.
The directionally opposite monthly movements recorded by the two measures of consumer confidence in the month of July reflect different conclusions about consumers’ expectations about future conditions. According to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey, the 5 point increase in consumers’ assessment of current conditions, from an index level of 94 to an index level of 99, was only partially offset by the 1 point decline, 78 to 77, in their view of expected conditions. In contrast, the decline in consumers’ expectations of future conditions according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, a 6 point drop from an index level of 91 to 85, more than offset the 5 point increase in consumers’ assessment of their present situation.