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Which States Lead the Nation in Share of New Home Capture?
Wayne Norris / Metrostudy / March 2014
Interesting news this week from the big, national data aggregator Corelogic regarding New Homes capturing a higher percentage of all Home Sales monthly throughout 2013:
Metrostudy’s numbers show even a rosier picture here in our region as we also look month by month for 2013. For example, here are the numbers for DE, NJ, PA, MD and VA.
(Click the image to enlarge the chart)
I also thought it would be interesting to take a look back to 2005 and see how the current NEW Home distribution compares historically on an annual basis.
As NEW Homes clearly grabbed a large share at the height of the housing boom with Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania hitting their peak in 2006 while Maryland and especially Delaware kept charging through 2007.
While each state’s NEW capture took an understandable hit through the housing downturn we are seeing a shift again as the recovery takes hold.
Annually New Home capture has already started coming back in Virginia and Delaware while Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania 2013 did not surpass 2012. This breakout is somewhat expected considering which of the states has an easier development process providing quicker access to needed supply. But as Corelogic and Metrostudy’s monthly 2013 numbers show NEW home share continues upward momentum across the region.
With limited resale supply and increased demand, we at Metrostudy expect that New Homes should capture a larger slice of the market as purchase demand continues to increase and new supply continues to come to market.
Metrostudy engages in primary research driving every subdivision visually inspecting each lot identifying starts, closings and supply along with many other metrics. We allocate the starts and closings for each Builder and Subdivision and regularly compare to existing home volume to the entire market to also gauge New Home capture.
Delaware it so happens, is the highest NEW Home capture state in the nation. Coming in at 22.3% for the year and peaking at 28.5 in November. Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia peaked in December at 12.3, 7.5 and 15.25% respectively. New Jersey, while still looking flat month to month is also much higher compared to the bottom.
We will keep a close eye on this and provide an update once the snow melts!!