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Mixed Signals from Housing
NAHB Eye on Housing / June 17, 2014
Census and HUD reported a decline in May housing starts and permits, but the headline numbers do not tell the whole story. First, the driver in the declines in both starts and permits was multifamily apartment construction, which was down to 376,000 starts (-7.6%) and to 372,000 permits (-19.5%). But the three-month moving average for multifamily starts is still the best since February 2006 and the decline is more the result of an extraordinarily high April. The same trend was evident in the multifamily permits, which adjusted downward after scoring a seven year high in April.
Second, single-family permits were up 3.7% to 619,000 (seasonally-adjusted annual rate), the highest since November 2013 and roughly equivalent to the output for all of 2013. The increase in single-family permits was true for all four regions adding support to the continued modest single-family expansion forecasted by NAHB.