Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, announced today the release of its fourth quarter 2014 Residential Remodeling Index (RRI) detailing activity in the remodeling and replacement industry.
The fourth quarter national composite of the RRI registered a score of 97.2, representing a 3.1% year-over-year increase on a seasonally adjusted basis, which beat a revised third quarter year-over-year gain of 3.0%. The RRI has now posted eleven consecutive quarters of positive year-over-year gains since the market bottomed out at the end of 2011.
The RRI also saw a 1.1% increase over third quarter’s revised result of 96.1, marking the 12th consecutive rise in the index and clearly confirming the growth in remodeling activity over the second half of 2014. With demand fundamentals also firming across the country at the close of the year, particularly in employment growth, projected growth rates in the RRI for the next few quarters have strengthened. As a result, the previous forecast for the remodeling market to reach full recovery (a reading of 100.0 or more) by third quarter 2015 remains intact.
“The remodeling index saw a welcomed bounce in fourth quarter 2014, closing out a year where growth, while still in the positive, was slower than what was recorded in 2013. This trend mirrored the overall movement in home buying during the last two years, where purchasing in 2013 spiked off of previous depths, and 2014 cooled off of those spikes. The 2014 market saw the absence of first-time homebuyers and a retreat of investment buyers, leaving a slight dent in the overall measure of remodeling,” says Brad Hunter, Chief Economist of Metrostudy. “However, a job market that has begun to heat up and recent increases in consumer confidence support our expectation that 2015 will see stronger gains in remodeling activity, as well as full recovery by third quarter 2015. Wage growth rebounded in January, and if increases can stay consistent for a while, it would bode well for the younger generation of potential homebuyers to enter the market. Additionally, current and future remodeling opportunities are ripe amongst baby-boomers.”
Metrostudy produces the RRI to provide the industry visibility into local market remodeling activity, forecasted future activity, and potential demand. According to the company’s fourth quarter report, all 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are expected to see year-over-year growth in remodeling and replacement projects in 2015, with average growth of 4%.
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About the Residential Remodeling Index
The RRI is a quarterly measure of the level of remodeling activity in 381 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the U.S., with the national composite reflecting the national level of activity. “Activity” includes home improvement and replacement projects, but does not include maintenance or projects of less than $1000. The seasonally adjusted index shows the relative level of activity in the geography specified (MSA or national composite) compared to 2007 (the baseline year). A number above 100 indicates a level of remodeling activity higher than the level of activity at the beginning of 2007, which was the peak of remodeling activity in the prior decade.
The index is produced through a statistical model that leverages detailed data on remodeling activity, including household level remodeling permits, and consumer-reported remodeling and replacement projects. Quarterly historical results for the national composite and for each of the 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S. are available back to 2004. In addition, Metrostudy also produces annual estimates of project counts and expenditures as well as forecasts of the quarterly RRI and annual projects and expenditures.
Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood company, is the largest provider of comprehensive research and insight for the real estate industry. Builders, developers, banks, manufacturers, retailers and many other industries all rely on Metrostudy's data and analytics to support strategic business decisions at the local, regional and national market level. For more information, visit www.Metrostudy.com.
About Hanley Wood
Hanley Wood is the premier information, media, event, and strategic marketing services company serving the residential, commercial design and construction industries. Utilizing the largest editorial- and analytics-driven construction market database, the company produces powerful market data and insights; award-winning publications, newsletters and websites; high-profile executive events; and strategic marketing solutions. To learn more, visit hanleywood.com.