News & Opinions
The latest news and insights from Hanley Wood’s outspoken experts and key thought-leaders throughout the residential and commercial design and construction industry.
David Crowe / NAHB / September 6, 2013
The long and deep housing recession left many homeowners remaining in place and potential first time home buyers continuing to rent or stay with parents or friends.
In a recent article, NAHB’s Heather Taylor reported the number and distribution of first time and repeat movers in American Housing Survey odd numbered years 2001 through 2011. The AHS reports 10 million purchased in the two years prior to the 2001 survey but home buying declined to 6.8 million households who purchased a home in the two years prior to the 2011 survey. Between 2001 and 2011, the population of individuals who couldRead More
Comments on Existing Home Sales: Too early to see impact of higher mortgage rates, Inventory has Bottomed
Bill McBride / Calculated Risk / August 21, 2013
First, the headline sales number was no surprise (see Lawler: Early Look at Existing Home Sales in July).
Second, the strong sales rate in July is not a sign that higher mortgage rates have had no impact on sales. The NAR reports CLOSED sales, and the usual escrow period is 45 to 60 days. Mortgage rates didn’t start increasing sharply until the 2nd half of May (see Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey®), so buyers could have locked in rates in May – and pushed to close in July. My guess is sales will be down in August reflecting higher mortgage rates.
The key number inRead More
Les Christie / CNN/Money / July 18, 2013
If history is any indication, the recent spike in mortgage rates is going to have little to no impact on home prices, according to a new report from Fannie Mae.
After looking at mortgage rates going back to 1990, Fannie Mae’s researchers came to the surprising conclusion that while rising rates were likely to hurt the number of home sales, they had virtually no impact on home prices.
“History suggests that interest rate increases at the level recently witnessed will not stop the current housing recovery,” the report said.
The study, which compared historic mortgage ratesRead More
Jed Kolko / Trulia / July 10, 2013
Rising mortgage rates are the top worry for people thinking of buying a home someday, and 56% of Americans say they would be discouraged from homeownership if rates reach 6%. But pay more attention to what consumers do than what they say.
After years of low-and-lower mortgage rates, the 30-year fixed rate shot up from a near-historic-low of 3.35% in early May to 4.46% in late June before settling back to 4.29% last week, according to Freddie Mac. The rate increase was sudden and steep, but not a surprise. Economists and forecasters have been waiting for rates to go up for two reasons: (1) the
John Caulfield / BUILDER / June 18, 2013
Builders in the top 50 U.S. markets close out 2012 with a flourish
Last year, the 50 largest metro markets ranked by new-home closings saw those closings increase 11.9 percent over the top 50 markets in 2011, to 218,571 units. That count represented 57.6 percent of all sales of new single-family homes and multifamily completions nationwide. And nearly three-fifths of the closings in those 50 markets—130,988—were transacted by their respective 10 largest builders. These Local Leaders generally grew at an even faster pace than their housing markets did, increasing their closings by anRead More