News & Opinions
The latest news and insights from Hanley Wood’s outspoken experts and key thought-leaders throughout the residential and commercial design and construction industry.
New-home sales in August reached the highest annualized pace since 2008. But many builders and economists still expect sales for this year to underwhelm, ultimately either matching or only slightly exceeding last year’s level.
The reason lies in the difference between the volatility of monthly home-sales figures from the Commerce Department and the underlying trajectory of the market established over the past year. The latter shows a pace, on average, of sluggish but steady growth.
Meanwhile, the frothy gain in August new-home sales reported Wednesday by the Commerce Department canRead More
Michael Neal / NHAB / October 3, 2013
Today, NAHB hosted its Fall Construction Forecast Webinar (CFW) featuring three renowned industry experts. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe was joined by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, and NAHB Senior Economist Robert Denk to present views on the outlook for the US economy and the housing market more specifically.
Here are the major points from today’s presentation:
David Crowe, Chief Economist at NAHB, noted that economic growth is expected to accelerate over the coming years and recent growth has reflected improvement in the housing market. At the same time, employmentRead More
Nick Timiraos / The Wall Street Journal / October 1, 2013
Fear that the housing market’s recovery is stalling has been overdone, say economists at Goldman Sachs in a new report.
The paper — entitled “Where is the pent-up housing demand?” — suggests that housing demand among the young has been suppressed due to cyclical issues not structural ones.
Homeownership hasn’t fallen out of favor and student-debt levels aren’t the main culprits for lower housing demand among young buyers, write economists Hui Shan and Eli Hackel. Instead, they suggest that the economic downturn is most responsible for muted homeownership gains among youngerRead More
Diana Olick / CNBC / October 1, 2013
The fight may be in Washington, but the effects of the government shutdown will ripple through every neighborhood in America—without a fully functioning government, an already tight mortgage market may become even more prohibitive. It is exactly what the housing recovery does not need.
“This is going to be very disruptive to the mortgage industry and pretty much result in a freeze of the pipeline,” said Craig Strent, CEO of Bethesda, Md.-based Apex Home Loans. “New loans can be taken, but without IRS and Social Security number verifications, [they] will not be able toRead More
Jonathan Smoke / Hanley Wood / September 25, 2013
The headline from the Commerce Department report on new home sales this morning was that August delivered a 7.9% increase over July. The Commerce Department numbers for August surprised analysts just like the existing home sales data last week because it seems that many folks have bought into the idea that rising interest rates are choking off the nascent housing recovery. Once again I stand by the opinion that no conclusive data exist that show we are seeing sales decline. The only declines we are seeing consistently are typical seasonal declines in activity.
Our more detailed insightsRead More