News & Opinions
The latest news and insights from Hanley Wood’s outspoken experts and key thought-leaders throughout the residential and commercial design and construction industry.
David Crowe / NAHB / October 3, 2013
Recent data concerning consumer and builder confidence suggest that at the end of the summer a pause occurred with respect to economic improvement. Adding to this is the uncertainty associated with the shutdown of the federal government. Besides the direct impact from lost or delayed government services, the shutdown is also a warning concerning the impending political debate regarding the debt ceiling, an issue which could have significantly larger economic impacts, including higher interest rates.
Direct impacts from the ongoing shutdown include possible delays in FHA-insured single-familyRead More
Michael Neal / NHAB / October 3, 2013
Today, NAHB hosted its Fall Construction Forecast Webinar (CFW) featuring three renowned industry experts. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe was joined by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, and NAHB Senior Economist Robert Denk to present views on the outlook for the US economy and the housing market more specifically.
Here are the major points from today’s presentation:
David Crowe, Chief Economist at NAHB, noted that economic growth is expected to accelerate over the coming years and recent growth has reflected improvement in the housing market. At the same time, employmentRead More
Robert Dietz / NAHB / October 3, 2013
Housing is an important source of economic growth. As of the second quarter of 2013, housing’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) was 15.6%, with home building yielding 3.1 percentage points of that total.
Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.
The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building and remodeling contribution to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees. For the secondRead More
Nick Timiraos / The Wall Street Journal / October 1, 2013
Fear that the housing market’s recovery is stalling has been overdone, say economists at Goldman Sachs in a new report.
The paper — entitled “Where is the pent-up housing demand?” — suggests that housing demand among the young has been suppressed due to cyclical issues not structural ones.
Homeownership hasn’t fallen out of favor and student-debt levels aren’t the main culprits for lower housing demand among young buyers, write economists Hui Shan and Eli Hackel. Instead, they suggest that the economic downturn is most responsible for muted homeownership gains among youngerRead More
Diana Olick / CNBC / October 1, 2013
The fight may be in Washington, but the effects of the government shutdown will ripple through every neighborhood in America—without a fully functioning government, an already tight mortgage market may become even more prohibitive. It is exactly what the housing recovery does not need.
“This is going to be very disruptive to the mortgage industry and pretty much result in a freeze of the pipeline,” said Craig Strent, CEO of Bethesda, Md.-based Apex Home Loans. “New loans can be taken, but without IRS and Social Security number verifications, [they] will not be able toRead More